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U.S. and Canadian foreign trade look more familiar but important changes are coming

0 668 Market Intelligence

The nature of economic recovery will see the U.S. goods and services trade deficit worsen in the months ahead. However, there are several factors that may limit the size of the deterioration in the deficit versus previous performance levels. First among these will be currency devaluation. In Canada, even when the trade position shifts over to a positive balance, it may have trouble returning to its former lofty heights. Such an outcome may be the fallout from natural gas prices staying depressed and the loonie continuing to climb versus the greenback.

The U.S. goods and services trade September as exports, on a month-to-month basis, increased 3.5% at the same time as imports stayed flat. Even when Canada’s trade position shifts over to a positive balance, it may have trouble returning to its former lofty heights. Such an outcome may be the fallout from natural gas prices staying depressed and the loonie continuing to climb versus the greenback.

U.S. foreign trade: goods and services balance
U.S. & Canada
Based on seasonally adjusted monthly figures, projected at an annual rate.
Analysis of U.S. foreign trade position usually focuses on goods and services exports minus goodsand services imports.
Data source: U.S. Census Bureau (Department of Commerce)/Chart: Reed Construction Data - CanaData.
U.S. goods trade deficit with major countries and areas –
September 2009
    Annualized Per cent of total
    Figure U.S. goods
    (U.S. $ billions) Trade deficit
       
Canada 1 Year Ago -88.3 9.9%
  3 Months Ago -18.3 3.8%
  Latest Month  -18.0 3.0%
Mexico 1 Year Ago -61.6 6.9%
  3 Months Ago -41.1 8.5%
  Latest Month  -54.7 9.2%
Germany 1 Year Ago -34.2 3.8%
  3 Months Ago -27.6 5.7%
  Latest Month  -25.4 4.3%
China 1 Year Ago -333.9 37.5%
  3 Months Ago -221.2 46.0%
  Latest Month  -265.2 44.4%
Japan 1 Year Ago -66.9 7.5%
  3 Months Ago -44.4 9.2%
  Latest Month  -49.6 8.3%
India 1 Year Ago -4.4 0.5%
  3 Months Ago -2.1 0.4%
  Latest Month  -5.2 0.9%
Euro Area 1 Year Ago -73.5 8.3%
  3 Months Ago -48.8 10.1%
  Latest Month  -49.2 8.2%
Indonesia* 1 Year Ago -9.6 1.1%
  3 Months Ago -7.5 1.6%
  Latest Month  -8.3 1.4%
OPEC Nations 1 Year Ago -156.6 17.6%
  3 Months Ago -70.3 14.6%
  Latest Month  -94.5 15.8%
Nigeria 1 Year Ago -26.4 3.0%
(OPEC 3 Months Ago -15.1 3.1%
member) Latest Month  -23.2 3.9%
Saudi Arabia 1 Year Ago -35.1 3.9%
(OPEC 3 Months Ago -11.0 2.3%
member) Latest Month  -15.3 2.6%
Venezuela 1 Year Ago -41.2 4.6%
(OPEC 3 Months Ago -21.6 4.5%
member) Latest Month  -23.6 3.9%
*Indonesia has a large trade surplus with the U.S. but it is mainly in products other than oil. In fact, the country has become a net importer of oil.
The five major suppliers of crude oil to the United States are Canada, Saudi Arabia, Mexico, Venezuela and Nigeria.
Data source: U.S. Census Bureau (Department of Commerce) (based on not seasonally adjusted current dollar monthly figures).
Table: Reed Construction Data - CanaData.
Canada’s foreign trade: The merchandise trade balance
U.S. & Canada
Based on seasonally adjusted monthly figures, projected at an annual rate.
Analysis of Canada/'s foreign trade position usually focuses on the Merchandise Trade Balance which is goods exports minus goods imports.
Data source: Statistics Canada / Chart: Reed Construction Data - CanaData.
Canada/'s trade by major goods and commodities - September 2009
Latest period   Year to date
AUG 09 SEP 09 %   Jan-SEP 08 Jan-SEP 09 %
(Cdn $ billions) Change   (Cdn $ billions) Change
                 
Agricultural and Exports 2.815 2.772 -1.5%   30.197 28.979 -4.0%
fishing products Imports 2.466 2.350 -4.7%   20.881 22.293 6.8%
Balance 0.349 0.422 20.9%   9.316 6.686 -28.2%
Energy Exports 6.538 6.375 -2.5%   100.101 57.567 -42.5%
products Imports 2.946 2.814 -4.5%   40.746 24.794 -39.1%
Balance 3.592 3.561 -0.9%   59.355 32.773 -44.8%
Forestry Exports 1.533 1.560 1.8%   19.227 14.741 -23.3%
products Imports 0.193 0.202 4.7%   2.166 1.804 -16.7%
Balance 1.340 1.358 1.3%   17.061 12.937 -24.2%
Industrial goods* Exports 6.216 6.608 6.3%   85.538 58.592 -31.5%
and materials Imports 5.861 6.361 8.5%   68.169 56.364 -17.3%
Balance 0.355 0.247 -30.4%   17.369 2.228 -87.2%
Machinery and Exports 6.155 6.433 4.5%   68.181 62.212 -8.8%
equipment Imports 8.948 8.797 -1.7%   89.962 82.661 -8.1%
Balance -2.793 -2.364 -15.4%   -21.781 -20.449 -6.1%
Automotive  Exports 3.636 4.211 15.8%   46.724 30.868 -33.9%
Products Imports 5.043 4.806 -4.7%   54.986 38.802 -29.4%
Balance -1.407 -0.595 -57.7%   -8.262 -7.934 -4.0%
*Industrial goods include metals and minerals.
N/A or "not applicable" is when the signs don/'t match.
Data source: Statistics Canada (based on seasonally adjusted current dollar monthly figures).
Table: Reed Construction Data - CanaData.

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by Alex Carrick last update:Nov 18, 2009

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